Decision making

Framework	Elements
Chesterton's Fence	- Don't tear down a process until you know why it exists. - Prevent well-meaning but harmful change.
First Principles Thinking	- Simplify complex issues by breaking them into fundamental parts. - Identify the Core Elements & Challenge Assumptions.
Gall's Law	- Complex systems that work start out simple. - Build small, prove it, then scale.
Goodhart's Law	- When a metric becomes a target, it stops being a good metric. - Vital reminder for any KPI or bonus system.
Hanlon's Razor	- Don't assume malice when confusion, bad info, or incentives explain the behavior. - Useful for defusing politics and blam when stakes are high.
Hickman's Dictum	- More than one cause can be true at once. - Helps when messy problems resist a single, tidy answer.
Hofstadter's Law	- Everything takes longer than you expect, even when you account for this fact. - A humble check on any plan.
Inversion	- Start at the end and think what could go wrong. - Identify Potential Failures & Plan Preventive Actions.
Map Is Not the Territory	- Be ready to adapt as you gather more data. - Regularly Update Your Knowledge & Avoid Over-Reliance on Assumptions.
Occam's Razor	- Start with the simplest explanation that fits. Complexity is often a symptom, not the solution.
Parkinson's Law	- Work expands to fill the time available. - Shorter deadlines often force focus, not failure.
Pareto Principle	- 80% of results come from 20$ effort. - Identify Key Tasks & Prioritize Efforts.
Peter Principle	- People rise to their level of incompetence. - A nudge to test for future fit, not just past performance.
Second-Order Thinking	- Consider long-term consequences. - Anticipate Future Outcomes & Evaluate Risks and Benefits.
Shirky Principle	- Institutions tend to preserve the problem they were created to solve. - Explains why some systems resist even smart change.
Sturgeon's Law	- Roughly 90% of everything is mediocre. - Assume most ideas are average; hunt for the rare standout.
Sutton's Law	- Go where the money is. - Attack the obvious, high-leverage issue before chasing exotic problems.